Clover rarityEdit

Original note on article page:

Note: None of the items are truly rarer than any of the others. It just seems that way due to probabilities and the random number generator. When you haven't harvested anything, you have a 100% chance of getting an item you need. After you get one item, you have an 80% chance of getting one of the 4 remaining items. After 2 items, you have a 60% chance of getting one of the 3 remaining items. After 3, it's a 40% chance at the remaining 2 and after 4, the chance of finding the last one is a mere 20%. That's what makes it seem like one item is rarer than the others. Each item has an equal chance of being the "rarest" for any given harvester. —Preceding unsigned comment added by KiruCaro (talkcontribs) 16:25, Mar 14, 20 (UTC)

Rebuttal from front page:

I think the note is incorrect. I harvested 27 nodes before receiving an emerald clover. The total was 1 clover, 29 barley, 30 grapes, 22 yeast, and 20 hops. Yeast was the only item that didn't occasionally harvest as a group of 3. The bottom line is that emerald clovers appear to be significantly less frequent than the other 4. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Sapperlight (talkcontribs) 21:59, Mar 14, 2010 (UTC)

Addition to rebuttal:

To test The above I gathered 565 Barley, 567 Grapes, 582 Yeast, and 530 Hops. Now lets guess how many clovers. 500? Try 63. I did this over a few days a few hours at time in different lands each day. So I guess we can conclude that all have equal chance of being there. It just 'seems' that one is 'rarer' then the others. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Wulf169 (talkcontribs) 07:41, Mar 17, 2010 (UTC)

Out of 42 nodes, I have harvested 3 clovers. With three harvests per node, that makes the rate of occurrence 1:42, or 2.4%. With 126 samples, the expected result if all harvests were equal would be 25. Given the empirical results and the fact that emerald clovers are the harvest for the Brewmeister's Backpack, it is more likely that the Note is incorrect. --Sapperlight 00:27, March 15, 2010 (UTC)

Going to have to agree with Sapperlight on this one. Clovers are quite rare, and since they are also required to make the Brewmeister's Backpack it makes sense. Catguy455 07:13, March 15, 2010 (UTC)

I have 21 clovers, yet 160-180 of the other four. Clovers are rare. 23:21, March 18, 2010 (UTC)

Breaking it down further - There are 9 results you can get from trying to harvest the nodes. (1 of any type or 3 of any one type except clover.) If all were to have same chance of occurrence, you would see a 16:1 ratio other materials vs clover. Looking at all the data so far collected we can see approximately a 32:1 ratio. (Taking my only own data I get 36:1 ratio, counted 21:160-180 as 4x170 to get number of material) This would seem given the large sample size, prove that clovers are indeed rare. How rare, approximately 5-6% of getting one. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Wulf169 (talkcontribs) 23:51, Mar 18, 2010 (UTC)

Just did this, Hops 1; Clover 3: Grapes 7: Yeast 14; Barley 15; for what its worth. Kding 00:01, March 21, 2010 (UTC)

If it helps, I harvested 100 items and received 31 Grapes, 25 Yeast, 13 Hops, 28 Barley, and 3 Clovers. 00:06, March 12, 2011 (UTC)

I am in the midst of harvesting, haven't done much yet but I wanted to post this... 10 grape, 8 hops, 5 yeast, and 2 clover... no barley yet. March 15, 2013

The clovers are definitely rare. I harvested about 20 nodes without seeing one. It's a good thing I have an Artisan's Fully Trained Pack Pony to harvest them for me. I average 7 clovers on each pack pony run.Jado818 (talk) 14:24, March 9, 2014 (UTC)
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